Latest outlookA Storm Window This Weekend, And The Door Stays Open

Rock Creek Weather

Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM PST

34°

Clear · H 60° L 32°

10-day precip
1.26″
0.66–1.94″ likely

❄ Snowfall · typical, in · % chance of precip

Nov 10–14

1.3″

Nov 15–19

4.9″
  1. 0
    Tdy11/10☀️60°32°0%
  2. 0
    Wed11/11☀️61°29°0%
  3. 0
    Thu11/12🌤56°26°8%
  4. 1.2
    0.14rainFri11/13🌨51°26°65%
  5. 0.1
    0.01rainSat11/14🌨48°26°36%
  6. 0.2
    0.08rainSun11/15🌨49°25°57%
  7. 1.2
    0.05rainMon11/16🌨42°19°89%
  8. 0.2
    0.01rainTue11/17🌨40°19°35%
  9. 1.8
    Wed11/18🌨36°21°77%
  10. 1.5
    0.02rainThu11/19🌨31°22°64%
✓ Models agreeSnow at 7,090 ft, 10 days: 6.2″ (3.0–11″ likely)
ECMWF 5.3″ · AIFS 7.5″ · GFS 6.1″ · Canadian 2.0″
Compare every model for this spot →

Rain and snow in Tom's Place over the next 10 days: about 6.2″ of snow (3.0–11″ likely) and 0.32″ of rain, mostly Nov 13–19. Snow level down to 7,100 ft Sat.

  • Sunrise 6:29 AM
  • Sunset 4:47 PM
  • Air Quality 43 · good

Snowpack at Rock Creek (9,600 ft): 1.19″ of water.

How this is made: amounts and ranges from the ECMWF, AIFS, GFS and Canadian ensembles (the Canadian at a quarter weight; plus NCEP's REFS for the first 2½ days), with snow worked out for this elevation; temperatures from the National Weather Service for days 1–7, shifted to this elevation. Totals are the members' median, so half get more and half less; the days show when it falls and add up to the total, and a day's % chance is the share of members with measurable precip. The charts show NWS's own amounts beside the models (◇). See the raw models

Next 10 days · tom's place

Snow Level

☼ 8.2k'
☾ 8.5k'
☼ 8.5k'
☾ 8.5k'
☼ 7.8k'
☾ 7.7k'
☼ 7.3k'
☾ 7.3k'
☼ 7.1k'
☾ 7.5k'

Precipitation

Total (days 1–5): ~0.44″ (0.01–0.76″ possible)25–75%10–90%NWS

Snowfall

Total (days 1–5): ~1.4″ (0–2.8″ possible)25–75%10–90%NWS

Snow Ratio

Temp Trend

Precip Chance

Wind (6-hr)

Cloud Cover

Full 10-day forecast
  • Tom's Place (7,090 ft): Tue 60°/32° and clear, Wed 61°/29° and clear, Thu 56°/26° and mostly clear. Snow over the next 10 days: about 6.2″ (3.0–11″ likely), plus about 0.32″ of rain. The weather models agree.
  • Mosquito Flat (10,250 ft): Tue 55°/31° and clear, Wed 56°/29° and clear, Thu 51°/27° and mostly clear. Snow over the next 10 days: about 15″ (8.0–23″ likely), from about 1.72″ of liquid precipitation. The weather models agree.

  1. Tue 11/10

    Clear

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo60° / 32°55° / 31°Dew / RHdew 18° · 19–78%dew 7° · 14–38%Snow——Precip——

    Snow level 8,500 ft · Wind ESE 5 mph

  2. Wed 11/11

    Clear

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo61° / 29°56° / 29°Dew / RHdew 21° · 19–72%dew 9° · 15–43%Snow——Precip——

    Snow level 8,500 ft · Wind SW 6 mph

  3. Thu 11/12

    Mostly Clear

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo56° / 26°51° / 27°Dew / RHdew 20° · 23–69%dew 10° · 16–53%Snow—Traceup to 0.1″Precip—Traceup to 0.02″

    Snow level 7,500 ft · Wind NW 10 mph

  4. Fri 11/13

    Partly Cloudy

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo51° / 26°45° / 24°Dew / RHdew 25° · 36–96%dew 16° · 31–75%Snow1.2″0–2.0″4.4″0–7.3″Precip0.40″0–0.63″0.55″0–0.89″

    Snow level 7,000 ft · Wind WSW 20 mph

  5. Sat 11/14

    Partly Cloudy

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo48° / 26°41° / 23°Dew / RHdew 26° · 44–100%dew 17° · 37–71%Snow0.1″0–0.7″0.5″0–1.3″Precip0.04″0–0.11″0.06″0–0.14″

    Snow level 7,000 ft · Wind WSW 14 mph

  6. Sun 11/15

    Partly Cloudy

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo49° / 25°43° / 22°Dew / RHdew 27° · 46–100%dew 16° · 39–84%Snow0.2″0–0.6″1.3″0–1.7″Precip0.12″0–0.12″0.17″0–0.18″

    Snow level 7,000 ft · Wind SSW 16 mph

  7. Mon 11/16

    Mostly Cloudy

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo42° / 19°35° / 16°Dew / RHdew 25° · 55–100%dew 15° · 47–81%Snow1.2″0–1.9″2.4″0.4–4.2″Precip0.22″0.03–0.36″0.26″0.03–0.42″

    Snow level 4,500 ft · Wind SW 11 mph

  8. Tue 11/17

    Partly Cloudy

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo40° / 19°34° / 14°Dew / RHdew 18° · 42–100%dew 6° · 36–64%Snow0.2″0–0.6″0.5″0–1.3″Precip0.04″0–0.10″0.05″0–0.12″

    Snow level 4,000 ft · Wind WNW 8 mph

  9. Wed 11/18

    Clear

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo36° / 21°30° / 15°Dew / RHdew 20° · 43–96%dew 9° · 35–74%Snow1.8″0–2.2″3.1″0.1–3.7″Precip0.23″0–0.25″0.33″0.01–0.36″

    Snow level 5,000 ft · Wind —

  10. Thu 11/19

    Clear

    Tom's PlaceMosquito FlatHi / lo31° / 22°26° / 17°Dew / RHdew 17° · 53–71%dew 7° · 44–57%Snow1.5″0–1.8″2.7″0–3.4″Precip0.20″0–0.25″0.28″0–0.32″

    Snow level 4,500 ft · Wind —

Snow and precipitation (liquid: rain plus melted snow) are typical amounts: each day's share of the median total across the models' members, so half the members get more and half less, with the likely range beneath; blue and green mark measurable snow and precipitation, amber wind of 25 mph or more. Under each high and low, the day's average dew point and its range of relative humidity (National Weather Service, then the ECMWF and GFS models past its forecast). Forecasts combine the National Weather Service with the ECMWF, AIFS, GFS and Canadian ensembles.

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