Weather Blog
Daily outlooks and forecasts for the Eastern Sierra
Latest Outlook
A Storm Window This Weekend, And The Door Stays Open
Clear and mild for the next few days, then a storm window opens this weekend. The first system looks to split as it runs into the West Coast ridge, but more chances show up the week after, and the Gulf of Alaska trough isn't going anywhere in the medium range.
November 8, 2026
A Storm Window This Weekend, And The Door Stays Open
Clear and mild for the next few days, then a storm window opens this weekend. The first system looks to split as it runs into the West Coast ridge, but more chances show up the week after, and the Gulf of Alaska trough isn't going anywhere in the medium range.
Our Halloween Storm Is Here. 6-10" for Main Lodge! And More Active Weather Follows?
The Halloween storm is here, with 6-10 inches at Main Lodge, 8-14 inches up top, and 3-6 inches in the town of Mammoth Lakes. Behind it, a Gulf of Alaska trough is nudging closer to California for mid November, backed by a record east-based El Niño, a +EAMT, and the MJO in phase 3.
Trick or Treat? A Halloween Snowstorm Is Coming!
Two merging low pressure systems finally line up for a Halloween weekend storm, with snow levels dropping below the town of Mammoth Lakes and roughly 5-9 inches possible on the mountain. After that, a Gulf of Alaska trough favors the Pacific Northwest at first before nudging south later in November.
A Halloween Storm? And An Open Storm Door Into November?
An upper level low dropping in from the north merges with an active southern stream around Halloween, tapping subtropical moisture with much lower snow levels than our last storm. It's still a coin toss, but a Gulf of Alaska trough may keep the storm door open into November.
Our First Proper Winter Storm!
A cutoff low strengthening offshore pulls a southerly plume of moisture into the Sierra Wednesday evening, with high snow levels that come crashing early Thursday morning, bringing 4-8 inches above 9,000 feet and 2-5 inches at Main Lodge.
Here Comes Winter! Storm This Week, More Activity Through November?
Winter is arriving quickly this week with our first proper storm. High snow levels will result in several inches up to 9 inches of snow along higher peaks. Further storm activity is favored into early November, with uber long range guidance currently hinting at a pretty active month. Is our El Niño response arriving strong and early?
Cutoff Low Season! And, a Remarkably Wet Looking Winter Signal?
Dry, mild fall weather holds for the next few days, so get out and enjoy the color while it lasts! Around October 20th, another trough looks likely to dive into California and could become a cutoff low, bringing anywhere from another dusting to several inches of snow, but it's a volatile forecast. Longer range, the pattern may reload toward the end of the month, the subtropical jet looks to be waking up, and a wet November signal keeps showing up. Meanwhile, our historic El Niño keeps barreling into uncharted territory, and the seasonal models are showing a remarkably wet winter for California.
Hurricane Rachel and a Possible Cutoff Low: Will the Sierra Get In On It?
Warm and dry weather holds through the weekend. Early next week, a cold trough diving in from the north may cut off over California while the remnants of Hurricane Rachel stream north. The most likely outcome sends moisture into Southern California and the desert Southwest, with snow for Utah and the Great Basin ranges. A less likely outcome wraps that moisture into the Sierra, with modest rain and some snow. The spread between models is wide, and that spread is the story.
More September Snow in the Sierra? And, Will Trailfest Be Spared From the Dome Fire's Smoke?
Another string of troughs appears likely across California, keeping temps cooler and bringing another dusting of snow to the higher elevations this Sunday-Monday. The exact placement of precipitation is uncertain. The following week appears likely to continue this story. The Dome Fire continues to burn and is 4,133 acres and 16% contained.
A September Dusting For High Peaks! And, A Dome Fire Update
A weak trough this week will bring a small amount of snow to the highest peaks along the Southern Sierra Crest, as well as scattered thunderstorms. After that, beautiful fall weather is in store. In other news, the weather has moderated the growth of the Dome Fire, where crews have made meaningful containment advances. The return of high pressure this week could bring an uptick in fire activity and smoke impacts to the Eastern Sierra.
Dome Fire Ignites in Yosemite National Park... Showers Next Week?
The new Dome Fire started yesterday in Yosemite National Park, near Chilnualna Falls. It grew rapidly during its first day and is burning in a relatively large pocket of unburned and rugged terrain. Next week, there is a chance of some showers on Monday as a weak trough passes over, with more troughing activity appearing likely into the longer range, keeping temperatures down.
Cool and Dry Fall Weather is Favored. What Does It Mean For Our Foliage?
Cool and dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future, with a weak signal for increasing precipitation chances 10-15 days out. Fall foliage is already beginning to pop off in places, and some of our higher elevations may peak slightly ahead of the usual progression.
Tropical Moisture Coming? Burners Beware!
Remnants from Tropical Storm Iselle appear likely to merge with an upper-level low, bringing rain to the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Exact placement of the heaviest plume of moisture remains uncertain; however, totals of 0.1-1" of liquid appear likely over the Sierra Nevada, with Black Rock City poised to receive rain just in time for Burning Man's entrance day.
Monsoon Reloading!
A larger surge of moisture arrives tomorrow, bringing more widespread thunderstorm coverage, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. This coincides with a West Coast trough, resulting in lower temperatures but an elevated risk of dry lightning over coastal and Sierra foothills areas.
Monsoonal Moisture Returns, the Heatwave Leaves, and an El Niño Update
This weekend will feature increasing thunderstorm coverage as some monsoonal moisture makes its way over the area. There are continued chances for more monsoonal moisture toward the end of next week, as a weak West Coast troughing pattern is favored, which should also bring temps down. Also, the latest El Niño forecasts continue to show a historic event unfolding.
Big Heatwave Coming to the West, Containment For Owens Valley Fires, And, How Well Can Winter in the Southern Hemisphere Predict Our Winter?
Containment is improving on the Rock Fire and Cinder Complex as a major heatwave builds across the West. Plus, a look at whether wet winters in Chile and New Zealand can offer clues about Mammoth’s following winter during strong El Niño events.
A Close Call With Some Tropical Remnants, a Retreating Monsoon, and a Large Brush Fire Near Aberdeen!
The past few days have featured some mountain thunderstorms driven by a close call with tropical remnants. Widespread thunderstorms today will give way to clearer weather as the monsoon retreats from the Sierra for the foreseeable future. A large brush fire broke out yesterday near Aberdeen and is currently at 2,500 acres with 5% containment. Evacuation orders are in place as the fire continues to burn.
A Brewing Monsoon! And, What's the Latest With Our Godzilla El Niño?
A strong ridge over the Plains will cause a record-breaking heat wave across Montana and surrounding states. At the same time, a favorable upper-level flow pattern will transport monsoonal moisture into the Southwest and Sierra Nevada. Eastern Pacific tropical activity may also begin increasing. Finally, the latest model runs are in, and El Niño looks increasingly likely to reach historic strength! But what does it all mean???
May Ends With Snow?
A cutoff low pressure system forms this week, stalling over our region bringing snow showers Weds / Thurs. The days that follow will have afternoon thunderstorms. Longer-range, a mostly warm and dry pattern with occasional mountain thunderstorms is likely.
Snow, It's Been Nice. Now, a Substantial Heatwave is Coming
After several days of high-level snow showers and thunderstorms, a major pattern change is coming. A substantial heatwave will begin to build in, with several days of only a superficial refreeze at higher elevations. After that, there are early indications that we may enter a convective showery pattern.
May Day! Snow Showers to Start the Month, With a Warmer and Drier Long Term Outlook
May is starting off with several days of convectively energized showers and thunderstorms. Longer term, a drier and warmer outlook is currently favored for the West Coast.
Showers Next Week. And Then, A Spring Transition?
After an active April, May looks to start with showers confined mostly to the Sierra Nevada, followed by warmer and drier weather. Has spring finally sprung?
Merry Fishmas! The Prophecy Comes True! Plus, Is It Time To Drink The El Niño Kool-aid?
In classic fishmas fashion, unsettled weather will return to the Sierra Nevada this weekend, with temps remaining mostly near seasonal levels and occasional showers possible for the foreseeable future.
Auspicious April: Storm Tuesday, More Chances to Round Out the Month!
Our winter storm Tuesday has been trending stronger. A dynamic system will impact the state today through Wednesday before giving way to clear weather. By this weekend, storm chances are ramping up again, fueled by a very active southern jetstream. The West could remain unsettled for some time as a result
A Last April Hurrah?
A storm is forecast to impact California next week, bringing widespread rain to the state and snow to the Sierra Nevada. After that, models hint at an extended pattern of below average temperatures.